Its this kind of beat that makes me wonder about how much of poker really is luck. The hand in question (player names removed for privacy reasons):

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Started at 21/Dec/04 06:23:54

seat 0 with $280.50.
lanbaren is at seat 1 with $413.
seat 2 with $258.50.
seat 3 with $772.50.
seat 5 with $252.
seat 6 with $150.50.
seat 7 with $200.
seat 8 with $367.50.
seat 9 with $162.
The button is at seat 1.

seat 2 posts the small blind of $1.
seat 3 posts the big blind of $2.

seat 0: -- --
lanbaren: Qc Qs
seat 2: -- --
seat 3: -- --
seat 5: -- --
seat 8: -- --
seat 9: -- --

Pre-flop: seat 5 folds. seat 6 calls. seat 8 folds. seat 9 folds. seat 0 calls. lanbaren raises to $25. seat 2 calls. seat 3 calls. seat 6 calls. seat 0 calls.

Flop (board: 9s 2s 2d):

seat 2 checks. seat 3 checks. seat 6 checks.
seat 0 checks. lanbaren bets $50. seat 2 folds.
seat 3 folds. seat 6 calls. seat 0 calls.

Turn (board: 9s 2s 2d Ad):

seat 6 checks. seat 0 bets $20. lanbaren calls.
seat 6 folds.

River (board: 9s 2s 2d Ad 6h):

seat 0 bets $20. lanbaren calls.

Showdown:

seat 0 shows 9h 2h.
seat 0 has 9h 2h 9s 2s 2d: full house, deuces full of nines.
lanbaren mucks cards.
(lanbaren has Qc Qs.)

I never even thought about the nine two. I still can't believe the guy called pre-flop with the nine two, but then again they were "soooted!".

I put the guy on pocket tens or jacks, possibly ace king or queen. However, the AK/AQ scenario went out the window with the small bet on the turn. The guy had been betting top pair heavy, no matter what the circumstances, whenever the board had paired and called/checked mid pocket pair when there was a significant raise pre-flop (general raise preflop was $4-$8).

Moreover, the four callers pre-flop and then the subsequent two folds on the flop led me to believe that at least one of the aces had been folded out. And if anyone had had kings, I felt I would have been re-raised pre-flop or on the flop. I was pretty confident in my read on Seat 0.

The remaining question mark was seat 6. I was pretty confident after his call pre-flop and flop that he had a middle pocket pair. His call on the flop made me relatively confident that he hadn't tripped up on nines. If he had tripped up, his previous play indicated that he would have check-raised me.

His fold on the turn confirmed my mid pocket read. If he had AK or AQ, I am sure he would have at least called, more likely re-raised seat 0, when the ace hit. I don't think he would have called with KQ/KJ pre-flop nor called the bet on the flop with KQ/KJ. The only remaining hands that would make any sense would then be mid pockets.

At any rate, seat 6 folded out and I was left playing against seat 0. The small bets on the turn and the river set off more red flags than you would find at a Moscow May Day Parade circa the 1950s, but the price was right to justify a crying call. I didn't think the guy had the ace, but something just didn't feel right. In retrospect, I should have folded and saved myself the $40, but thats poker. Should have, could have, would have, but I just didn't do it.

That hand was pretty much the turning point for the night. I had been playing pretty well all the way up until that point, up a significant amount for the night, but that beat put me slightly on tilt. I dropped about $30 more before I just closed out the program. On the plus side, for a short period of time I got a little taste of what its like to be Phil Hellmuth. On second thought, that may not be a plus to feel like him in these type situations and besides, Phil porbably would have folded.